Keenan Vision
Welcome PDF Print E-mail
Written by Vernon Keenan   
Wednesday, 03 March 2010 00:00

Welcome to the Keenan Vision web site!

This is a "memorial" web site to the business I ran from 1998 to 2004 called Keenan Vision. It was a computer industry analysis firm that specialized in the examination of electronic commerce. In the course of my studies, consulting engagements, and publications I got to ride a bit of the wild Internet Bubble that grew during the millennium period.

At Keenan Vision I published a number of articles that had detailed predictions of the business future. Time has borne some of my predictions to be true, and several of them to be wildly off base. I think I was ahead of the curve when it came to thinking about what is today called "cloud computing." I drew a lot of complicated diagrams all of the intricate mechanisms that accelerated global commerce via computerized communication. Today companies like Google and salesforce.com have built these networks of APIs and other mechanisms to run business at the speed of light. But I blundered plenty in my predictions, too, especially seeing how e-commerce players would manifest. I'll let you decide how right or wrong I was.

Currently I am running a small computer services firm in Berkeley, CA called Berkeley Logic and I even pontificate about the industry occasionally on the Berkeley Logic Blog. While I don't get to be on TV predicting the future anymore, I do take some satisfaction on knowing that at one time I did see the future effectively and told the world about it. It was a lot of fun at the time!

Vernon Keenan
Berkeley, CA
March 3, 2010
Last Updated on Thursday, 17 June 2010 22:31
 
Exchanges In The Internet Economy PDF Print E-mail
Written by Vernon Keenan   
Thursday, 17 June 2010 22:21

This is the paper that really launched my exploration and expertise into the realm of dynamic pricing and the Internet. At the time eBay was still a glimmer and the world was still full of promise.

You may find the whole report and the numerical analysis at these links. I also made a nice PowerPoint of the report. Here are the first few paragraphs and the table of contents of the report.

Exchanges In The Internet Economy

by Vernon Keenan
Published October 26, 1998

Market pricing is going to control a dramatically increasing proportion of transactions on the Internet, Keenan Vision has determined through an analysis of the Internet Exchange and auction technology.

We have prepared this report as compilation of information, history, facts and analysis designed to help Internet architects and system planners incorporate auctions and market pricing into their solutions.

Internet Exchange and auction technology is creating a new class of intermediaries. These players create their own markets by inserting themselves into niches which previously had been dominated

by entities who offered only fixed rate pricing, offering advantages to both buyers and sellers in the process. Furthermore, the speed with which new companies can enter this space is increasing with the rollout of new auction software which is becoming faster and easier to implement.

First, we take a look at the market opportunities created by new, market-driven pricing technologies and examine projections for Internet commerce. We also review our estimates for which industries will be the first to move towards the Internet Exchange.

Next, the offerings from five Internet companies who sell products and services that implement auctions for users of electronic commerce technology will be profiled. We analyze the relative differences between the offerings and profile the ideal customer for each of the players.

The report concludes by offering practical advice for Internet architects who are thinking about using Internet Exchange technology.

  1. Executive Summary
  2. The Internet Exchange
  3. New Intermediaries
  4. Opportunities
  5. Auction Types
  6. Exchange Architecture
  7. Auction Software
  8. Conclusion
  9. Tables and Graphs
  10. Footnotes
Last Updated on Friday, 18 June 2010 00:02
 
The E-Merchant Opportunity of 1999 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Vernon Keenan   
Thursday, 17 June 2010 23:59

 

This was my next major work that focused on the opportunity for businesses of any size to get onto the Internet to do sales and marketing.

In this rather involved paper I envisioned how all of the major players would have to work together to get Internet e-commerce moving. As you may see, I was really digging the 1849 San Francisco Gold Rush analogy.

You can download the full PDF here. Here's the introduction...

The e-Merchant Opportunity of 1999

By Vernon Keenan
Published March 1, 1999

Get ready.

A new wave of Internet players is about to make their presence felt and a rich vein of opportunity will follow for the properly positioned vendors.

Like the California Gold Rush of 150 years ago, the real revenue opportunities will go to those that provide this new wave of Internet immigrants with the supplies and expertise needed to conduct their business on the Internet.

These new immigrants, who we have dubbed e-merchants, are already making their presence felt. But it is only the beginning. While the larger, high-profile Amazon.com’s grab all of the attention, we believe that the migration of the millions of existing small business in the United States to the Internet will provide an opportunity to a whole host of Internet technology and service vendors. With only 17,500 e-merchants online right now—and over five million offline merchants in the US who currently use credit cards to process payments—we believe the growth opportunity in this market to be spectacular.

We believe that a sizable portion of this new market will revolve around Internet portals. Small merchants will flock to portals for the same reasons their real-world predecessors flocked to commercial districts and shopping centers – visibility.

No small merchants can match the marketing clout of a Yahoo! or MSN.com. Just as merchants seek to gain store space in a mall or shopping district that includes an anchor tenant like Macy's or Bloomingdale's, the online merchant will seek a location near a well established Internet brand. In the next four years, the number of e-merchants will increase 20-fold.

Are you ready?

In this Keenan Vision report we will describe opportunities for suppliers of goods and services needed by this emerging class of e-merchants. We have delineated this set of needs in Part 1 as the e-Merchant stack. This concept is at the core of our analysis of the market opportunity surrounding e-merchants, and will serve as a guide to those companies wishing to capitalize on this new opportunity.

In Part 2 we will describe the players in this market space, those that have the opportunity to fill the needs of the e-merchants. While portals will supply locations for e-merchants, a whole host of critical services must be provided in partnerships with or through the portals themselves. No small e-merchant will have the time or interest in becoming a highly skilled IT professional. This section will serve as an alert to those companies hoping to cash in on the e-merchant rush.

Finally, in Part 3 we will offer the strongest documentation we have seen on this new market opportunity. The e-merchant market opportunity is going to explode in the next four years; we believe that both our market data and anecdotal information will convince even the hardiest skeptics. This section also gives a unique insight into the needs of the new e-merchant.

 
Last Updated on Friday, 18 June 2010 04:58
 
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